National Crime Estimate Forecasting Tool
Crime type
The estimate
How it works
The tool combines two estimates: one based on changes reported by Crime Index agencies and one based on the FBI’s running national count. It gives more weight to whichever method was more accurate at the same point in previous years. Because the sources partly overlap, agreement between them is reassuring but not independent confirmation.
Forecasts are rounded to the nearest hundred.
What today’s model would have estimated
This replays the 2025 forecast using the Crime Index and CDE data available in February 2026. This is when completed 2025 data was first available through the Crime Index and CDE but 6 months before the FBI published its 2025 estimates.
| Crime | Model estimate (90% range) | FBI initial estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Violent crime | 1,118,500 (1,078,300–1,146,900) | 1,119,768 |
| Murder | 14,500 (13,800–15,200) | 14,085 |
| Rape | 124,100 (117,800–129,400) | 123,332 |
| Robbery | 166,900 (159,800–172,500) | 168,927 |
| Aggravated assault | 817,100 (791,500–835,900) | 813,424 |
| Property crime | 5,266,000 (5,070,700–5,409,900) | 5,245,768 |
| Burglary | 665,900 (648,800–679,700) | 661,800 |
| Theft | 3,967,600 (3,813,400–4,084,500) | 3,910,502 |
| Auto theft | 680,600 (651,300–704,200) | 673,466 |
All nine FBI estimates fall within the model’s ranges. Rape and violent crime use the FBI’s revised rape definition throughout.